One of my minority clients has several mainstream friends applying to law school, and I offered them some free help. The first thing that I saw was that they were way off base with their choices of law schools. They didn't seem to understand that with average numbers, you're lucky to get into a third tier law school. It occurred to me that many of you may have this problem, so I decided to help you out with a reality check.
First, let's all say it together:
With average numbers, you're lucky to get into a third tier law school.
Then, let's look at the numbers -- the number of applicants, the number of seats:
In 2002, with only 90,000 applicants:
About 5,000 had a GPA of 3.5-3.74 and an LSAT of 165-69, or higher. The top 14 schools had about 4,300 seats (including part-time programs).
Another 6,000 had a GPA of 3.5-3.74 and an LSAT of 160-64, or a GPA of 3.25-3.49 and an LSAT of 165-69. The next 20 schools had about 5,000 seats.
Another 10,000 had a GPA of 3.25-3.49 and an LSAT of 160-64, or better. The next 40 schools had about 10,000 seats.
Note that we're already past the top 75 law schools, and are still in the 90th percentile LSAT scores with good grades. Note that we're using two-year old applicant pool data.
The remainder of the law schools in the top 100 had 6,000 more seats. This covers the applicants with a GPA of 3.25-3.49 and an LSAT of 155-59.
The law schools in the third tier had 10,000 seats. This covers the applicants with a GPA of 3.25-3.49 and an LSAT of 150-54.
The law schools in the fourth tier also had 10,000 seats. This covers the applicants with a GPA of 2.75-2.99 and an LSAT of 150-54.
We are now out of seats. We still have 44,000 applicants -- half the applicant pool.
Does this mean that no one with lower numbers gets in? Of course not. Some minorities will be admitted with lower numbers. Some people who went to top schools, or who had hard majors, will get in with lower GPAs. Some people with connections will get in. Some varsity athletes, some older people with good work records, some people who grew up disadvantaged, etc., etc. In fact, a total of about 55,000 people will be admitted. But for the basic mainstream applicant, sheer volume is the determining factor. As one admissions officer put it, "Don't think your activities will make the difference."
And all of that is with 90,000 applicants. In 2003 there were 99,000, in 2004 there were 102,000 or more. There will probably be fewer seats -- the number of seats was calculated from the year of record over-enrollment -- but only a thousand or two fewer.
Knowing what they're looking for is one thing; knowing whether you have it is another thing altogether. Here are some examples of factors that might get you in with lower than median numbers:
What doesn't count as special?
You affect admissions policies.
A number of top law schools are changing their admissions policies in response to USNWR ranking methods. Some will be rejecting presumptive admit applicants who don't show a strong inclination to attend their schools, in an effort to raise their yield rate. (Hint: the schools that ask "Why us?" are most likely to be among this group.) Some will be accepting fewer people with lower LSATs, even among diversity applicants, in order to raise their published 25th percentile LSAT number. They're taking these steps in order to increase their USNWR ranking.
So how do you make that happen? Because the schools are responding to one overwhelming truth. You apply to law schools based on their USNWR ranking! A shift from 4th tier to 3rd, or even a shift of one or two places in the top tier, has enormous effects on a school's number of applications. Since that's what you're using to choose law schools, schools are scrambling to impress you. And in a number of instances, they impress you right into their reject stack.
I've frequently had applicants call and bemoan the unfairness of their low LSAT scores' keeping them out of top schools. When I discussed lower ranked schools with them, their response was, "But that's not even in the top N." Somehow they miss the fact that the top N is defined primarily by its LSAT score and yield rate.
So if you want schools to look at more than just numbers, you have to look at more than just numbers. When you start asking yourself "Where will I be a good fit?" instead of "What name is the most prestigious?" law schools will be able to ask "Will this person fit in well?" instead of "Will this person increase our ranking?"