A Median by Any Other Name...

One of the more frightening aspects of going to law school is the financial side. Many students accrue mountains of debt to pay for their education. One shining glimmer of hope to these people is the data published by schools of their graduate's average salaries. The thought of earning these salaries makes the debt seem manageable. In fact, this information is often used when choosing at which law schools to apply. However,one day back in 2005 I was helping a client choose between two law schools in the same city.  We looked at median starting salaries, and one school reported an amount $15k higher than the other.   But then I noticed that the school with the higher amount had a much lower percentage of people reporting.  So I said, "There's no way to know which graduates are actually making more money.  Look at other variables instead."  (In the end she didn't go to either school, so it was moot.)

One law school whose percentage was particularly low said that they get a good number of surveys back, but people don't include their salary information. Schools certainly can't report information that they don't have. So when you graduate expecting to get an average salary of 65K and find you're only making 45K, blame the alumni, and don't be too embarrassed to report your salary. The only way to stop the cycle of misinformation is by getting real information out there.

In the meantime, I started with crunching the available numbers.  Here's what I saw:  

• USNews publishes the percent of graduates whose employment status is known, as well as percent reporting salaries in the private sector (as reported by the law schools to the ABA).  
• The ABA/LSAC Guide published the percent working in law firms.  
• Both publish the number of graduates.
• If you multiply these four numbers (# of grads x % of known status x % in the private sector x % reporting salary), you arrive at the actual number of grads for whom the salary is reported.  
• Then, since you have a median for this group, you divide by two.  The result is the number absolutely known to be earning the reported median. Others may be earning the median, but there's no way to confirm it.
• The only assumption in this calculation that cannot be verified is that grads are earning the salary they report.  People may inflate the number in order to sound cool,.  Of course, they could also report a false low, but that's far less likely.

 So here's the scoop on what -- or, to be more precise, how many -- a published median really represents.

To recap. Columbia had 400 grads in 2005; reported salary data applied to 78% of them, or 311.   So half that number, 155 must  earn at least $125k, and as many as 245 are earning less than that.  

Notice that Columbia's median represents a higher percentage of graduates than any other law school's.  This means that the published median is highly reliable.  The lower the number (and the chart is in percentage order, so lower on the page equals a lower percentage), the less reliable the reported salary is.  

Caveat: Don't go be one of those silly  people on those silly chat boards, saying "Yale grads make less money than Harvard grads."  And even worse, don't you dare say that I said any such thing!  What I said was that the published median represents a larger proportion of Harvard's grads, which is a whole different thing.  If more Yale grads clerk, or go into public interest, that doesn't mean "they couldn't get a real job."  I only point out what is indicated by the data, not what else it might mean.