Christmas 2012

The Conclusions

These conclusions and my interpretations are based on data gathered from law school web pages and view books, handouts at Law Forums, emails and conversations (both by phone and in person) with admissions officers. All of this data has been presented and explained ad infinitum on these pages:

• data deluge about applications;
• data deluge about enrollment;
• double deluge -- GPA and LSAT

If you're going to try to read and interpret all that data, you really should read the footnotes and explanations here first.

But most of you just want the bottom line. Okay, here it is:

Applications 2009-2012

Based on data from 146 schools, applications have taken quite a nosedive.
I've smoothed the data from 2009 to 2011, because I omitted the data from 2010, for reasons I explain over here. But from 2011 to 2012, there was a serious plummet, probably the result of both a genuine lack of jobs and an incredible amount of yellow journalism.

What does that mean to you? A lot more junk mail, fee waivers, phone calls, invitations to visit, anything that's legal and a few that are questionable, to get you to apply.

The important thing to remember is that all those efforts to get your application have nothing at all to do with an intention to admit you.

1. Part of a school's U.S. News ranking is the number of offers it gets.
2. Like you, they're hoping to win a lottery ticket: someone who had no interest in their school becomes interested in a program or a recruiter, and another warm body worth over $100k shows up next year.
3. They get really lucky, and a person with a good GPA and LSAT score decides to attend. Now they have more apps, more money, and higher medians. JACKPOT!

Does knowing the number of apps at a particular school tell you anything? Not really; to try to predict what any one school is going to do, I suggest you head right over to the double deluge -- GPA and LSAT

The only other thing I can deduce is that, if you look at the application data by school, you'll see that top schools and bottom, great cities and middle-of-nowhere, are all losing apps. So those articles you read about lower apps at lower schools are total B.S. There was a decline of between 13.5% and 14% at both the top 25 schools and the bottom 25.

Enrollment (a/k/a/ Seats) 2009-2012

With data from 167 schools, there's a lot to see here.

Start with all the same caveats as I've placed above, just under the heading "Applications."

Notice how similar the lines are. The slope of the line for seats is almost exactly the same as the slope of the line for applicants. What does that mean? It means that it need not be any easier to get in than it used to be, because the declines are proportional.

Think of it this way: if you have a hundred dollars and you save ten, you've saved 10%. If you have 200 and save 20, you've still saved 10%. There was a decline of just under 14% in apps, and just under 15% in seats, so again the overall ratio is meaningless; you're going to have to delve into the school-by-school data to see what to expect for your school.

GPA and LSAT 2009-2012

Last year I made a bad call. It's right here. I said "the law schools we know and love have the same old 40-42,000 seats they've had for over 30 years." Well, that wasn't true; the number of seats dropped to about 35,000. So instead of median LSAT scores dropping 2 points, as I had predicted someplace-or-another, some schools held LSAT constant and dropped seats, while others held seats constant and dropped LSAT. Which did which? That's what we're all here to see.

For the school-by-school data, head right over here. Or stay here and get the sound bite first. But if you actually want to learn something, DO look at the school-by-school data before making any further decisions.

This analysis again begins with the 167 law schools that provided data on the number of seats. Unfortunately, 17 of these schools didn't provide median GPA and LSAT data. For the 8 schools that gave no data, I'm deleting them from this data base. For the 9 that gave 25th and 75th percentiles but not medians (there are apparently some questions for the ABA about stray bits of data) I'm estimating the data. Estimated data is clearly marked by being in black text and bold.

When viewed by ranking, a clear pattern emerges.

• The top 20 or so held LSAT and dropped seats. Can they afford to do that again next year if need be? My guess is that if they're willing, they can afford it. They do tend to have deep pockets.
• From the top 25 to the middle of the pack, a school could choose to hold LSAT and lose a LOT of seats, or lose some seats and one LSAT point. Can they afford to do this again? My guess is not, but I've guessed wrong before. I'd look here for a scholarship with a high LSAT.
• The bottom, especially the "unranked" schools, couldn't hold LSAT no matter how many seats they sacrificed. Some of them might be able to do this again, but here is where I'd look for a bargain with a low LSAT or a scholarship with a higher one.

Next, lets look at the change in the number of seats:

Schools that increased the number of seats did so at the expense of median LSAT. My guess is that they were hurting financially, and that they'll try not to repeat the pattern. I imagine they'll try to hold LSAT constant and lose a handful of seats.

Schools that held seats constant were all over the place for median LSAT; U.S. News rank (meaning a solid class in the first place) seemed to tell here. At the top of the heap you can have your cake and eat it too.

Schools that took enormous drops in class size also took a beating on LSAT, and my guess is that they just can't afford to do it again. As I said above, look at these schools to take people with LSAT scores a point or two lower simply because they have no choice.

Now, what happens if we sort by LSAT change?

Nothing we haven't already seen. The same is true of sorting by GPA. Any patterns that might emerge have already been described above.

But I know what will help you. I'm going to post in order by median LSAT. This data isn't gathered in one place anywhere else in the world. (Well the ABA has it, but they haven't published it). I'm not even going to make you go to another page to find it. Right here is the latest data on 160 law schools. Look especially at those median LSAT scores.

Merry Christmas!