At many law schools, files are not reviewed in order of the date they're received. Instead, they're reviewed by index number.
So imagine the admissions officer coming into the office on a Monday morning. She stops at her assistant's desk on the way in and says, "Bring me some files, will you, Pat?" (All administrative assistants, whether male or female, seem to be named Pat.) Pat brings in the stack with the highest index numbers -- 218-220 on the 10 to 1 scale. Our admissions officer skims the files for serious problems, then okays the acceptance. The next batch has a slightly lower index number. Maybe by the end of the day we've moved through all the numbers from 220 down to 210.
Now we go to Tuesday morning. Our admissions officer doesn't start at 209. Instead, she starts at 220 all over again! More files were completed yesterday, and more top people have to be admitted fast, so we can woo them. If it's been a slow week, she may get lower down in the stack -- say, 204. By Thursday she's down to your number, a 200. Does she admit you? No! She sets it aside until she has more 200s to compare you to, or until she sees how many 208s she has.
A few of you will be admitted -- the ones with split grades or LSAT scores, or those of you with diversity factors the school wants -- military experience, varsity sports, geographic diversity. The rest of you get set aside. The lower your index number, the more often you get set aside -- if you're lucky. If you're unlucky, there was a problem in your file -- a weak school, an arrest, or just a sloppy or dull essay -- and you get rejected now.
For instance, in 2003 one poor client had a 3.5, a 170, and is a minority, although not a destitute one. He applied to Chicago back in October. In December he was told that he'd been deferred, and would be reviewed again in March. Another, with a 4.0 and a 166, applied binding early decision. He too was deferred. He might hear in February. Of course, he might hear that he's been deferred until April. I'm telling you, children, early does not help if you're not selling what they're buying.
That's the story of top-down admissions. Lower index numbers mean longer waits to hear. So, as I've said before, early apps help a small portion of applicants, but not the ones waiting to hear from dream schools.