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With help from
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by Charlton D. Rose
and David Chang

Application Trends

How I Use Info About Application Trends

Some of the uses of the information I've assembled here are obvious.  When applications are increasing, published data will give you too rosy a view of where you might be admitted; when applications are decreasing, you should have an easier time than last year's group did.  Since all published data is a year or two off, it's helpful to know in what way to adjust it.  

Of course, increases and decreases aren't uniform across all schools; my Forum notes show which schools had the biggest increases (in which case the published info is the least reliable).  But the overall trends contribute to the psychological outlook of the admissions professionals.  

In addition to general trends, last year's application data can be helpful in making two decisions:

• Should I wait a year or two and reapply?
• Should I go where I can now and try to transfer?

When applications are increasing, waiting a year may not help.  Back in the late 80s, when apps were skyrocketing, I had a client who applied three years in a row, with a higher LSAT score each time, only to be rejected all three times.  The schools' medians were increasing faster than his LSAT score.  In fact, while Law Services does not publish data on re-apps, they do publish breakdowns by the length of time after graduating college a person applies.  That data tends to show that applicants a year or two out of school do not fare better than applicants who are college seniors.  

When applications are out of control, there are fewer opportunities to transfer.  Schools that seriously overenrolled one year may take no transfers at all the next year, or even in the next several years.  2002 was the big year for chaos in this cycle of application increases.  AS 2005 gives hints of a downturn, there may be chaos again.  Admissions officers, like the rest of us, tend to expect this year to look a lot like last year, and make offers accordingly.  When this year and last year are different, they can make some wrong decisions.  So I've saved the data on how many schools overenrolled in 2002 and what effect it had on their 2003 decisions in case we need it again soon.