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by Charlton D. Rose
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Application Trends

Application Trends

Over the last 40 years, law school applications have undergone three periods of rapid increase to astonishing levels, and two periods of gradual decline from their zenith.  2005 seems to be the year when applications will begin their descent, but there's no way of knowing either how fast or how low they'll drop.  Most applicants to law school neither know nor care about this phenomenon.  The consensus is, "I'm applying this year; why do I care about what happened five years ago, or what will happen next year?  

As an admissions professional, I care very much, for the simple reason that the admissions officers care.  Their job is complicated by institutional needs that don't concern the applicant.  

• They have to balance budgets -- empty seats are lost income.  
• They have to bolster USNews rankings -- declines in rank are often reflected in sluggish alumni giving.   
• They have to keep the faculty happy -- dull students make for dull classes.  

Application trends are an important part of their complicated juggling act.  When apps are on the rise, they wait list cautiously, and deny deferrals.  As one admissions officer said to me, "Why should I defer them? I'll see better applicants next year."  When apps are dropping, they take more risks in admitting borderline applicants.  And when the trend turns, they make wrong decisions that cause chaos.  Classes are overfull, and no one goes to their wait list, or classes are empty and everyone is scrambling to fill their class in July.  

All of this matters to me.  My ability to negotiate a seat for next year, or to  convince an admissions officer to hold an applicant's file while she waits to hear from another school, depends on that larger job the admissions officer is facing.

So I track application volumes very closely.  

• I look at the trends over the years I've been in business, in the hope that history will repeat itself.  
• I construct statistical projections, in an effort to see how anticipated changes will affect this year's applicants.  
• I gather anecdotes at the Law Forums, which I analyze to see how the emotional mood is running.  
• And I use this information to advise my clients on whether to pay a seat deposit, remain on a wait list, reapply next year, or give up and go apartment hunting.

All of the data I use to analyze and advise is, of course, proprietary data.  That means I own it and don't have to share it with anyone.  But being a very generous and noble woman, and believing in the free exchange of ideas, I share it with you here.  I must admit it upsets me tremendously when someone lifts huge chunks of it and makes money publishing a book out of my work, but those are the moments when I know that I really believe in freedom of information, since I keep posting it here anyway.  

Accordingly, I am giving you here, absolutely free, the data I use to advise my clients.  Study it to see if you can use any of it for your own benefit.  And good luck with your applications!