It's public information that a lot of schools overenrolled in 2002. A lot of those schools will be making fewer offers next year, either to offset the higher yields the poor economy is sparking, or to balance the total enrollment by filling fewer seats next year. After interviewing 150 law schools at the Chicago and Atlanta Law Forums, I've decided that many schools will be making at least 100 fewer offers next year.
Here are the caveats:
"I've decided" Maybe they told me so. Maybe it's the only thing that makes sense to me.
"at least 100" Or 200. Or 300. Or, in a rare few instances, even more.
Who are they? Here's my list of schools that will take a lot fewer applicants next year:
AMERICAN
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
CALIFORNIA WESTERN
CARDOZO
CONNECTICUT
DENVER
EMORY
GEORGE WASHINGTON
HOUSTON
IOWA
LOYOLA-NEW ORLEANS
MIAMI
NEW YORK LAW SCHOOL
OKLAHOMA CITY
PENN
PEPPERDINE
PITTSBURGH
QUINNIPIAC
SETON HALL
TEXAS
WISCONSIN
When there are a lot fewer offers, the 25th percentile gpa and LSAT tend to rise, meaning that the school takes a lot fewer people in those ranges. Applicants at or above median aren't usually affected much at all. For instance, here's what I anticipate happening at George Washington.
The grid printed in the Official Guide shows the following acceptance rates
for 2001:
| 4.00 -3.75 | 3.74 -3.50 | 3.49 -3.25 | 3.24 -3.00 | 2.99 -2.75 | |
| 175-180 | 100% | 100% | 89% | 67% | 0% |
| 170-174 | 97% | 100% | 94% | 81% | 33% |
| 165-169 | 98% | 97% | 83% | 45% | 19% |
| 160-164 | 73% | 62% | 35% | 17% | 10% |
| 155-159 | 12% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 7% |
| 150-154 | 7% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 3% |
Since that grid was printed, applications went up by about 2,000. In
addition, the school wound up overenrolled quite a bit. As a result,
they will be taking about 200 fewer people next year. With 2,000 more
apps and 200 fewer offers, the new grid should look like this:
| 4.00 -3.75 | 3.74 -3.50 | 3.49 -3.25 | 3.24 -3.00 | 2.99 -2.75 | |
| 175-180 | 100% | 100% | 89% | 67% | 0% |
| 170-174 | 97% | 92% | 84% | 37% | 30% |
| 165-169 | 91% | 78% | 57% | 23% | 16% |
| 160-164 | 49% | 41% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
| 155-159 | 7% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| 150-154 | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
At 165/3.5, the change is negligible. For lower LSAT scores and GPAs, there is a significant difference.
When a school was already doing something unusual in their admission pattern,
the result can be downright wacky. Penn is a great example. Penn
has been screening applicants with very high LSATs and GPAs for genuine interest
in Penn and Philly. As a result, their 2001 grid looked like this:
| 4.00 -3.75 | 3.74 -3.50 | 3.49 -3.25 | 3.24 -3.00 | |
| 175-180 | 55% | 63% | 50% | 40% |
| 170-174 | 65% | 77% | 75% | 38% |
| 165-169 | 76% | 68% | 45% | 21% |
| 160-164 | 16% | 7% | 9% | 11% |
| 155-159 | 7% | 7% | 11% | 10% |
This year, Penn's applications increased by more than 1500. Their yield
rate was incredibly high. They haven't decided yet how they're going
to handle this problem, but it's conceivable that they will admit many fewer
people -- perhaps 300 fewer. Their new grid could look like this:
| 4.00 -3.75 | 3.74 -3.50 | 3.49 -3.25 | 3.24 -3.00 | |
| 175-180 | 14% | 22% | 17% | 28% |
| 170-174 | 31% | 35% | 35% | 26% |
| 165-169 | 45% | 45% | 17% | 11% |
| 160-164 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 7% |
| 155-159 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Will they really screen this carefully at the top? I don't know. I know that if they don't, their yield rate will decrease, their USNWR ranking will drop, and someone (most likely the dean) will be very unhappy.