September 2, 2003 

Gazing Into My Crystal Ball

The number of people who took the June LSAT was down a bit from last year, but this reflects the number who kept their score, not the number who registered. With all the horror stories circulating about how difficult it is to get into law school these days, I suspect that a large number of people changed their test date. There is a bit of confirmation of my theory in that attendance at the DC Law Forum was up.

So what am I predicting for this year? An increase in applications, although a lesser one than we've seen in the last several years. If I'm right, this may be the beginning of the turnaround: a slow increase this year, a leveling off in 2005, and a decrease in 2006. But as I've said before, my crystal ball isn't as good as Dean Shields's, and his prediction is for a decrease about three years later than I think.

September 16 -- NY Forum

Things I noticed at the law forum which were of more than passing interest:

• The desire to attend law school in a big city has skewed applications for minorities even more so than for mainstream applicants. It seems that minorities need extraordinarily high numbers these days to get into an East Coast law school.
• If you want to go to a top law school, the December LSAT is just too late unless your numbers are presumptive admit. Virtually every school in the top 25 gave this advice.
• Hardly anyone was willing to make a risk assessment on the floor of the Forum, either positively or negatively. With one or two exceptions, the two dozen admissions officers I spoke to said they would have to see a full file in order to give an accurate assessment.
• As the number of recruiting events increases, the number of decision-makers present at any single event decreases. There was a startlingly low number of top admissions officers in New York.

October 1 -- Atlanta

• Forum attendance was about the same as it was last year.  It had been down about 200 in New York, but up 700 in DC, so it's still running slightly high.
• The absence of top admissions officers still plagued us.  Many of the assistants who were present were "not authorized" to give individual assessments, so we had to rely heavily on the few people who could and would give honest answers.  
• Our data collection thus far indicates that most schools increased their 25th and 75th percentile LSAT scores by a point or two, and in a few instances even by three points.  This tells us once again that published data will be overly optimistic.
• December isn't too late to apply to schools below the top 10 as long as you get your app in by December 15 or so. That way your file will be ready for review as soon as the scores are released.   

Several other schools mentioned that they'd be gathering more files before they begin reviewing.  Even presumptive admit offers will be slower at the top schools.  How they're going to reconcile this with early decision programs I'm not sure, but my best guess is that only those who walk on water will be admitted early. So apply early decision if you must, but don't be surprised if you don't get in.  

October 19 -- Chicago

Forum attendance was up about 10% both days.  That means the only city so far where attendance has been down was New York.  

• There was much more of a local focus to this crowd than I'd seen in other cities.  There were noticeable times when Yale, Villanova, etc., had no one at all at the table.  This was great for me, but bodes ill for those of you applying to Chicago schools.  I would expect record increases in applications again this year.
• Another indicator of an increase in apps to Chicago-area schools is the vacant stores in the downtown area.  There weren't many, but there shouldn't be any.  The economy isn't doing so great, the Cubs notwithstanding.  For more, see the note on the economy, below.
• Many of the California schools aren't giving a preference to minorities, even though they're not affected by prop 209.  Some said they felt bound to follow prop 209 just to avoid problems.  Others said that they needed to keep their LSAT range and bar passage rate up because they have only recently received ABA and AALS accreditation.  The remaining schools said that since so few schools were taking minorities with lower numbers, the simple rules of supply and demand gave them a better minority applicant pool.  So no matter what the reason, minority admissions in California is much more competitive than anywhere else in the country.
• About 30% of the 130 schools we've interviewed so far overenrolled this year.  The amount of overenrollment is much less than last year, however; both the median and average number is about 25, as compared to 45 or 50 for last year.  Only one school reported being over enrolled by more than 50, as compared to about 15 last year.

Law and Economics

No, that's not the title of a law school course, despite my stay in Chicago (where the U of C specializes in just such an approach).  It's one of the many variables I ponder when predicting the turns that apps will take.  

In October 2004, I went shopping for some new clothes to wear to Chicago. I mentioned to the saleswoman at the mall that a blouse that she was selling for over $40 was on sale in her store's online catalog for $15. After we finished complaining about this injustice, she mentioned that online shopping was killing business at many of the stores in the mall, citing the number of empty properties as her evidence.

What on earth does this have to do with law school admissions? Well, if retail business is declining, so are retail jobs. When jobs decline, people return to school, hoping that more education will make them more marketable. So an area in which retail business is down will have an increase in law school applications.

What areas are these?  I'm not an expert on shopping by any means, but traditionally retail business has centered on urban and suburban areas, while mail-order business has been a valuable resource in rural areas. I would guess that urban and suburban lawschools, especially those in the second tier or lower, will see an increase in applications disproportionate to those in the top tier or in rural areas.   State schools may also see a disproportionate increase.

Why the lower tiers?  Because people who work as retail sales clerks are less likely to apply to top-tier law schools. Why state schools?  Because people who work as retail sales clerks are less likely to think they can afford private schools.  Please note that this is not a comment on the intelligence of the national retail sales force. Rather, it is a comment on the expectations of people working in these jobs.  Either they didn't try to get a fancy job after college, or they tried and were unable to.

Moreover, the admissions officer at Wake Forest mentioned that M.B.A. applications were down both at her school and nationally.  I take this as corroboration of a decline in retail business (and perhaps of other business as well). Since people with MBAs tend to work in urban and suburban areas, I would again expect an increase in law school applications in these areas.

What's an applicant to do?

My best advice, and the advice you least want to hear, is to think rural.

I know you hate rural areas.  So do I.  I grew up in Philadelphia, and I think of cities of half a million as nice little towns.  But you need to decide whether you want to go to law school or want to have a social life. My advice is that lawyers can afford social lives, while unemployed retail clerks cannot.

Nov. 19 -- Forum Finale

Another forum season has drawn to a close with four big events in a row.  I can't begin to remember what I learned in which city or at dinner with which admissions officer, so this will be a conglomeration.

• Forum attendance up, admissions officers down.  
  • Forum attendance was up about 10%.  In every city.  All year.  I take particular note of this, since it means my costs increase.  I had to conduct over 300 interviews to get answers from 170 schools, and with more students attending, the average wait time was longer.  
  • There are several possible reasons for this phenomenon, but they all boil down to, "Forums aren't our best recruiting opportunity."  Too many people who don't interest you take up your time.  You can buy lists from Law Services of the applicants you want.
•  Nothing looks pretty out there for the applicant.  
  • October LSAT takers exceeded 53,000, an all-time high.  December LSAT registrants are at an all-time high.
  • Dennis reported that Duke is running 200 apps ahead of where it was last year at this time.  
• LSAT rules.  
  • GPA 2.5; LSAT 161.  With a little distance and a responsible job between those grades and now, the LSAT will control where you can get in.  
  • High grades and low LSAT were much harder to sell, even with the same work experience.
  • There was little sympathy for the applicant who didn't speak English, as well.  A 3.7/159 didn't interest anyone in the top 25, even though the student learned English only six years ago.    
• Decisions will be very slow. The commonest answer for all my students, no matter what the problem with the file, was, "We'll hold it a while and see,"  
  • Only presumptive admits got enthusiastic responses.  Even with an LSAT at last year's median, the response was, "Well, that was last year's median; who knows what this year's will be?"

January 16 -- Going Up!

Applications, of course, and applicants as well, but not by as much.  Apps are up 14% nationally, according to Law Services. The largest increase is from California residents, with a 25% increase.  Applicants are up only 5%, which means people are applying to more law schools.  Knowing this, law schools may admit a bit more liberally.  On the other hand, they may decide it's too crazy, and admit fewer.

Feb. 1, 2004 --

Apps?  

Up, of course.  High, and higher.  Well, a few are down.  Here's the scoop, verbatim from LSAC, as of January 9:

Currently there are 20 schools with an application volume increase of 40% or more, while no school shows a volume decrease of 40% or more. 141 schools show an increase in applications, while 41 show a decline and 5 show no change. A more detailed breakdown of school increases/decreases is shown below:

Increase of 100% or more: 4
Increase of 50% to 99%: 9
Increase of 40% to 49%: 7
Increase of 30% to 39%: 23
Increase of 20% to 29%: 23
Increase of 10% to 19%: 35

Increase of 1% to 9%: 40
No change: 5
Decrease of 1% to 9%: 28

Decrease of 10% to 19%: 10
Decrease of 20% to 29%: 3
Decrease of 30% or more: 0

March 1 -- Starting to Roll 

How High?

Increases on the east coast are running 20% or more at most schools; quite a few are up over 50% from last year.  

The west coast is likewise reporting 20% and 35% increases almost across the board.