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With help from
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by Charlton D. Rose
and David Chang

The Admissions Process

The Numbers Game

The School's Numbers, Your Numbers

Most law schools have at least ten applicants for every seat in the entering class; some have over twenty! The sheer quantity of applications makes it expedient (if not necessary) to deal with some, perhaps most, applications based purely on the "numbers" -- cumulative grade point average (gpa) and LSAT score. Most law schools hire an admissions professional (such as a Director of Admissions) whose job is to decide which applicants can be accepted or rejected based on the numbers, and which warrant further consideration by the law school's admissions committee because of diversity or academic factors.

High, Low, or In-between?

The admissions officer usually has the power to make many admission decisions (pursuant to the school's guidelines) without consulting anyone else. If the gpa and LSAT score are above a certain level, and there is no pressing reason to reject the applicant, the admissions professional can offer the applicant a seat in the incoming class. Likewise, if these numbers are below a certain level, and there is no pressing reason to accept the applicant, the admissions professional can reject the applicant. Law schools call these two numerical ranges the "presumptive admit" and "presumptive deny" numbers. Between these two numbers is the "discretionary" range -- applicants whose files are worth looking at, but about whom no automatic decisions can be made.

What numbers do they use?

In establishing presumptive admit and deny ranges, law schools usually aren't looking at grades and LSAT scores separately; instead, they use a numerical formula to combine the two into a single Index Number. Some schools establish their own Index formula; others ask Law Services to calculate a formula for them which correlates grades and LSATs to first year grades in last year's entering class. The formula a school uses may weigh grades and test scores equally, or it may emphasize one over the other; the vast majority of Index formulas emphasize LSAT scores.  The average index formula is weighted so that .1 in your gpa equals 1 LSAT point.  An "index point" is thus 1 LSAT point or one-tenth of a grade point.  

Law schools recently began publishing 25th and 75th percentile gpa and LSAT numbers.  As a general rule, the index number calculated by using both 75th percentile numbers is the school's presumptive admit number, while the one calculated by using both 25th percentile numbers is the presumptive deny number.   If you're interested in looking at the index numbers of most law schools, click here.

If you take the LSAT more than once, some schools will average the scores in calculating your index number, while others will use the higher LSAT score.  Our section on academic factors tells you more about LSAT scores and problems with them.

Most schools will use the cumulative gpa for all your undergraduate grades in calculating your index number; others will use all the grades at your "degree-granting institution." No law school will ever use graduate grades in your index number.  See our discussion of "Which Grades" in our section on academic factors  for more information.

Who gets accepted because of their numbers?

In the context of the party model, presumptive admits are all those people whom we assume can easily participate in the party -- that group of fabulous people we will invite.  (Of course, many of these fabulous people will have better things to do -- like attending Harvard's party -- so they'll fill only a few of our spaces.)  At most schools, presumptive admits are applicants with numbers at least as high as the medians for last year's entering class. (For a quick look at the approximate medians of different law schools, Boston College's Law School Locator is a handy reference.)  

At law schools which place a high degree of importance on the quality of the undergraduate institution, an applicant who appears to be a presumptive admit will be rejected if the school or course of study is believed to be too easy.

Most other presumptive admits who are not accepted have something negative in their file which causes their rejection. This could be an arrest record or honor code violation, a poor recommendation, or a poorly completed application. These factors are discussed further in "Minimizing the Risks."

Who gets rejected because of their numbers?

Most presumptive denies and many discretionary applicants get rejected. Presumptive denies are applicants whose numbers do not warrant consideration. In the context of the party model, they are the people who will not add anything to the conversation. Their grades and LSAT score indicate that they are not brilliant enough to be a benefit, and there are no overriding reasons to accept them.

Many discretionary applicants will be rejected simply because there is no room for them. People whose numbers are close to the medians must show that they have something else to offer besides their numbers.  Of course, the further away from the medians you are, the more diversity you need to offer to be competitive.

Who gets accepted despite their numbers?

People who get admitted with numbers lower than presumptive admit encompass the many other goals of the admission process.  Most racial and ethnic minorities will be considered in this category, as will other people viewed as disadvantaged -- applicants with a physical disability, from an impoverished background, or who did not speak English as their first language.

The rationale in giving these applicants special consideration is that their lower numbers do not necessarily indicate less of an ability to succeed. In addition, the admissions officer may consider the diversity these students will offer to the student body. Applicants over the age of thirty may also be given special consideration for their diversity.  A truly remarkable background may merit consideration for the diversity it will offer; however, "remarkable" is very difficult to define.  A good general rule is that if you personally know another person with a similar background or accomplishment who is applying to law school, you're not remarkable.  

The admissions professional may admit applicants recommended by influential people despite their numbers, or a separate procedure (like sending the file to the Dean or to Alumni Giving) may be established for them. For more information on these applicants, see "Maximizing the Rewards."

Who gets rejected despite their numbers?

The vast majority of people aren't rejected because their numbers are too low; many applicants are close to the presumptive admit mark, but offer nothing the school wants besides their numbers.  Then sheer volume forces them to be rejected in favor of someone with the same numbers plus a little something extra.  (For a look at how many applicants nationally have which index numbers, click here.)  

What counts as "a little something extra" varies from school to school.  By interviewing admissions officers and reading catalogs, I've amassed quite a bit of data about this, and put it up as my holiday gift in December, 1998.  For a peek at what each law school seems to want, click here.

Harsh Reality

It isn't easy to get into a good law school.  There are a lot of people out there with higher numbers than yours.  There are a lot of people with more interesting backgrounds.  I discuss this in so many places on my web page I don't think I can list them all, and I'm not going to try.  I'm going to give you one example.  Suppose you have a GPA of 3.4 and an LSAT of 160.  In 2004, there were 17,000 applicants with your numbers or better -- enough to fill the seats at the top 50 law schools.  If your numbers are lower than these, and you can't name what's extraordinary about you, think about lower-ranked schools. Look here for a chart of where I think you're competitive, given 2005 data.  

"I know I can do the work."  

I've heard that twice in 12 hours, so I thought it might deserve a moment's attention.  Here's what I wrote the second of those two people:  

And why do you think this is relevant?  At a typical law school, 75% of the people who apply "can do the work."  There are still only seats for 10%.

Every admissions officer I know says that rejecting the applicants who can't do the work is easy.  The hard part is choosing the few for whom they have room from among the many who can.  

Let's think for a minute about, say, Columbia.  They have a median LSAT of 169 or 170, and a gpa of about 3.75.  Nine hundred students in the applicant pool have those numbers.  Now let's drop the LSAT down to 160, leaving the gpa at above 3.75. Four thousand more applicants have those numbers.  And if we drop the LSAT to 150, there are yet another 4,000.  So the ability to do the work is the least of the admissions officer's worries.  

High LSAT Scores -- Gathering All the Causes

Between 2003 and 2008, applicants dropped a cumulative 15%.  One would think that median LSAT scores would have to drop by a point or two; yet that has not been reported.  The easiest guess -- that someone's lying -- is the least likely; both LSAC and the ABA are sufficiently involved in the reporting process that the best guess is that reported data is accurate.  But if the data is correct, how did  applicants drop while medians held constant?  

After a bit of reflection and number-crunching, I have found five separate causes which, cumulatively, have contributed to the median LSAT's constancy at various law schools.  

Greater Yields

As I reported here, the yield rate (proportion of people who enroll after being  offered a seat) has increased.  What this means to you is that even though apps decline, it stays just as hard to get into a top school.  Higher yields have exactly the same effect as more applicants -- schools can fill their classes with people who have higher numbers than yours.  

Decreased Seats

As I reported here just two weeks ago, there are about 550 fewer seats among the top 50 law schools, and 2,250 fewer seats in the top three tiers.  This means that there effectively are fewer seats for more applicants.  

More Test-Takers, More High Scores 

According to Law Services data (available here under Data -- LSATs Administered), the number of tests administered in between 2003 and 2007 has declined only 5% while applicants have declined 15%.  One of my clients (I wish I could remember who; I really prefer giving credit to those who deserve it) hypothesized that people with lower LSAT scores are not applying in as high numbers.  Whether people with low numbers are not applying, or are retaking and then applying with a higher average is not clear, but there is a definite shift in the percent of applicants with different scores.  In 2003, only 8% of the applicant pool had an LSAT score of 165 or better; in 2007, 11% had those scores.  The same is true through all the ranges in which applicants are admitted; at the 150 mark, for instance, there are 4% more applicants in 2007 than there were in 2003.

This change represents an actual increase in the number of people with each score.  For instance, in 2003, 18819  applicants had an LSAT score of 160 or better (the approximate range you'd need to be admitted into a "Top 50" law school); in 2007, 20781 people had that score.  

So now we have 1950 more applicants competing for 550 fewer seats among the top 50 law schools.     No wonder medians aren't dropping!